The 2026 CEO Separation Wave Has a Hidden Risk
- Debbie Braden
- Jun 8
- 1 min read
Deals are getting bigger. So is the human risk.
In December, Collateral Partners asked a question about the 2026 separation wave — then left it on the floor.
"How much does shorter CEO tenure correlate with execution risk in complex separations, particularly when leadership reorganization accompanies the transaction?"1
Six months later, the conditions they described have only intensified.
Deal count is down 30%. Average deal size has doubled. CEO turnover just hit its highest Q1 total in eight years. And roughly 30% of major separations are being led by executives with less than two years in seat. 2
The financial press tracks all of this. What it doesn't track is what happens inside the organization while the deal is being structured.
Employees form an opinion about new leadership fast. They decide whether to trust the direction, whether to stay, whether to deliver. Those dinner table conversations are the earliest signal anyone has. And no one’s listening.
And the new CEO is making fast moves. Collateral Partners notes that “new CEOs face lower political costs for restructuring. They didn’t build the existing portfolio, so unwinding it doesn’t repudiate their own decisions.”
Fast moves from the top. An organization that hasn’t decided whether to trust the person making them. That’s where change fatigue starts—and where trust not yet earned is the hardest thing to build under pressure.
Short-term gains. Long-term cost.
The risk Collateral Partners left hanging isn't priced into the deal. It's priced into what the organization already believes about the leader who just walked in the door—before they’ve even said a word. That’s where execution risk begins.
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